We begin this inaugural post with a quick look at Bayern Munich’s squad planning for the 2024/2025 season.
At the top of the news this week is CM Leon Goretzka’s exclusion from multiple matchday squads and the unattributed reports of his refusal to leave Bayern.
There are two main arguments in support and disagreement with the club's actions:
Logistics: Wages, squad planning, and other tactical considerations.
Principles: The club’s ethos and what is best for Bayern strategically.
I start with the following caveat: there have been very few official statements about this situation, and the whole narrative is constructed from unattributed reports and media speculation.
In reality, we have only a handful of data points: Goretzka’s presence or absence from matchday squads and some PR-friendly quotes attributed to the various stakeholders in the situation.
Logistics and Tactics: Bayern is Correct
The argument supporting Bayern’s approach is as follows:
Leon Goretzka is considered the fifth or sixth choice for one of the two CM spots, behind CMs Palhinha, Pavlovic, Kimmich, and Laimer, and in contention with LB/CM Guerreiro.
Leon Goretzka’s most recent performances for Bayern, including pre-season 2024/25, have been poor.
Leon Goretzka’s high wages are a priority to discard.
Leon Goretzka’s reputation and prominence in the media mean his exit might be necessary to avoid distractions.
We cannot dispute these points—it could very well be that Goretzka is deemed surplus to requirements, informed by an evaluation of his recent performances. His high wages would therefore be inefficient for a player expected to receive very little playing time and contribute minimally as a result.
It could also be true that the media will sensationalize this situation as it develops. Moreover, Goretzka’s veteran status and attitude could be a distraction within the squad's locker room, although we have little evidence of him being a problematic personality at any point in his career.
The club, therefore, has the right to utilize any measure to encourage Goretzka’s departure, saving wages, avoiding unnecessary media scrutiny, and preserving squad harmony for the new young manager, Vincent Kompany.
Principles and Strategy: Bayern Should Reconsider
The argument against Bayern’s approach is as follows:
Leon Goretzka, despite the club’s desires and efforts, allegedly refuses to leave in the summer window, which is his right as a contracted player.
Leon Goretzka should be treated as one of the squad players since he is not leaving in the summer window.
Leon Goretzka should be allowed to gain and maintain match fitness wherever possible because he is a squad player like any other (and they are not useful if they’re not match-fit).
Leon Goretzka’s treatment as less than a squad player runs contrary to the "Mia San Mia" ethos and could have blowback if the squad feels his treatment is unfair.
I won’t hide my position: the above argument seems sound. I feel it is strategically unwise to treat Goretzka differently from any other squad player. But the argument only begins here…
The Argument Put Together
Bayern finds itself in the unenviable position of having big ambitions and huge expectations while being a self-commercialized football club. Bayern’s competitors are either underwritten by financial interests or benevolent billionaires (Premier League clubs and PSG in France) or are commercial behemoths (Real Madrid, Barcelona, Juventus, etc.).
Bayern’s prominence means it finds itself in a difficult and competitive environment where all the parties generally pursue the same handful of players and managers, whose representatives seek the highest economic conditions possible.
This competitive area is where Bayern wants to be at the very top of the sport, but the economic competition is equally brutal, and Bayern finds itself at a multi-dimensional disadvantage.
The Bundesliga is behind in terms of playing prestige
The Bundesliga is considered not as competitive as the Premier League or maybe even other leagues
The Bundesliga/Germany is less attractive to certain players than La Liga, Serie A, or the Premier League
Bayern is self-funded and cannot afford too many risky investments working against them
To differentiate itself and continue to attract talent and remain competitive, the club must have a certain edge or leverage points.
Bayern Point of Leverage 1: The Academy
One part of that edge is the long-intended desire to develop academy talents and promote internally. Bayern has repeatedly stated this as a strategic interest and has invested considerable funds towards it. The advantages of Bayern leaning on homegrown talents do not need repeating.
If there are internal youngsters meant to play, and they earn opportunities on merit, then they must be given precedence. This is both tactically and strategically sound.
In this Goretzka situation, we can see Pavlovic being given opportunities ahead of the elder Goretzka. Pavlovic is 19 years old and not quite the finished product; I have reservations about his stamina and athleticism given his young age, but his technique and overall upside are undeniable.
It, therefore, makes sense for Pavlovic to be given every chance to retain his playing time.
Bayern Point of Leverage 2: Prestige
Bayern Munich is undeniably a top club in world football. The prestige it carries was hard-earned and carries some weight among players and their representatives.
If Bayern makes decisions that negatively affect the club’s prestige, such as public spats with players, it would be a strategic error.
Other strategic errors would be punitive or frivolous actions against players and their careers—disgruntled players make a stink, and it is in a club’s interest to resolve a given situation as quickly and cleanly as possible.
New signing Palhinha seems to have hit the ground running, his spot should not be under scrutiny and he should, therefore, be offered every opportunity to cement his position as quickly as possible.
Joshua Kimmich seems to have gained manager Kompany’s trust, therefore, it is imperative that he becomes accustomed to the tactical needs in Kompany’s system and his opportunities should not be taken away frivolously.
Konrad Laimer is arguably 4th in the pecking order at CM, but his recent performances have been laudable and he has earned his spot through merit.
If Goretzka is adamant about sticking it out until at least the 2025 Winter Transfer Window, in my opinion, the club should accept it and allow him to gain match fitness whenever/wherever possible in his role as 5th choice CM or whatnot.
Bayern Point of Leverage 3: Wages
Often understated in terms of strategic planning, Bayern’s high wage bill has become a point of discussion in recent months. The club’s bosses seem to think the wage bill should be slashed and more cost-effective contracts negotiated going forward.
The media dutifully repeated stories of Bayern’s high wages, and given the recent two seasons where Bayern won only a single trophy for their outlay, there is more scrutiny than ever on the club and its high-earning players.
The other side of this issue is almost never acknowledged: other teams in Bayern’s strata pay high wages too, and they feature in more prestigious leagues or competitions where players can earn more through sponsorships or image rights. A player in England can conceivably market his sponsorship toward the English-speaking market, whereas a player in Germany would have a more difficult time reaching such a large market share.
Beyond sponsorships, certain players would need economic convincing to change leagues from a higher prestige one to the Bundesliga. It’s part of the competition.
Similar to Bayern, a club like PSG also has to offer comparatively high wages to players and managers to secure their rights to join the decidedly inferior French Ligue 1.
Bayern might have understood that they need to pay more in order to secure certain players.
After Bayern won the Sextuple in 2020 during the peak of the Covid Pandemic, the club did not have a proper horizon for economic conditions to come. They seem to have made the decision to pay up and retain their Sextuple-winning players rather than risk their departures and have to secure their replacements. In doing so, they committed to Sextuple-quality wages: many players on contracts over €10m/year and above.
The strategy did not bear fruit, and several players declined from this peak in health, form, or both—Goretzka is one such case but not the only one. Wingers Kingsley Coman and Serge Gnabry have both had issues with health and form ever since their contract renewals.
Are Leon Goretzka’s wages high and inefficient? Yes. Was he hard to replace at the moment of his renewal? Yes.
At that time, the club went with the more straightforward decision: to retain the player and reward him for a job well done.
An Immoveable Feast…
Assuming Goretzka does not want to leave, there is considerable risk to Bayern “forcing” him by giving him unfavorable conditions. If he does not want to leave, the matter should be settled then and there. Any more effort becomes unwarranted and pushy.
Assuming there will be injuries in the months to come, since Goretzka will not often feature, Bayern should give him match time in friendlies and against minnows wherever possible.
Assuming the club wants to maintain squad harmony, every player, including those deemed surplus to requirements, should feel there is a meritocracy and that there are opportunities for them to feature in the right conditions. A player who is not match-fit will never be able to exploit such conditions—thereby, he will feel left outside of the meritocracy.
A disgruntled veteran player is no good to anyone or the club itself for that matter. It could be perceived that Goretzka is being punished—i.e., he is not permitted to earn his spot—for things that are simply outside of his control.
Conclusion
Putting together the arguments for and against the current situation is tough to do until there are more data points.
Will he continue to be left out of the squad?
When the club suffers injuries, will Goretzka be permitted to feature then?
What offers has Leon had in front of him, and has he been unreasonable in his refusal to move?
Will the club and player find a solution before the end of the summer window where Leon chooses to leave for another club?
As it stands, I think it is an error not to allow Goretzka to feature in friendly matches.
The downside is strategic but also tactical—if he is really the 5th choice CM, then playing time will be near-impossible to secure during the season. He likely wouldn’t make the bench for competitive matches due to tactical priorities.
However, a friendly match so that he can keep some match sharpness would only help him, his morale, and the squad, and it would avoid giving extra strain to the overworked starters. Kimmich, in particular, does not need to play more irrelevant matches than absolutely necessary.